Friday, December 24, 2010

Fortinet A Fast Growing Network Security Play




Fortinet is an interesting stock to research because it is a good way to play the growing computer network security market. There are a few options to investing in stocks focused on network security, but I think Fortinet is one of the best options. Fortinet is the worldwide leader in Unified Threat Management (UTM), which is a grandiose way of saying that their network security solution covers all the core security requirements of an enterprise’s connection to the internet. As such, this encompasses firewalls, virtual private networks, intrusion detection and prevention and, anti malware.

The UTM market is primarily targeted at the small to medium size enterprise (SME) and Fortinet is the leading player in this market. Competitors like Cisco are focused on large enterprise solutions, whilst similarly for Check Point Software their UTM offering is only part of their product range. IBM is a competitor but has recently been seen as a potential purchaser of Fortinet due to their tardiness in establishing market share. Fortinet is attractive to IBM because they possess a proprietary technology. Fortinet do not resell other companies products.


Fortinet's Growth Prospects

 I think Fortinet has good growth prospects and I see their key share price drivers

  • Growth in the economy seeing an expansion in SME market and a willingness to free up IT spending
  • Growth in internet functionality of SME market
  • Benefit of a UTM ‘One-Stop-Shop’ solution for SME’s in securing inbound and outbound traffic through one appliance
  • Growth in cyber crime raising awareness of security needs
  • Growth in Fortinet’s top line leading to operating margins that are closer to, say, Check Point Software
  • Takeover potential. IBM are strongly rumored to be looking at them

I think the first point two points are contingent upon your view of the economy. However, should the economy grow next year I think that SME IT spending has the capacity to expand in excess of GDP growth due to the fact that companies have cash on their balance sheets. Moreover, most of the surveys are indicating a loosening of the purse strings in this regard.

The increasing importance of E-commerce and the utilization of internet portals to increase globalization of trade, should drive SME’s to increase their internet functionality. In addition, there will be more emphasis placed on monitoring internet (internal and external) based threats, given the inexorable rise in cyber crime. Similarly, corporations may seek to reduce energy and personnel cost by adopting a one-stop-shop solution with a UTM system. Whilst, this is not seen as an option for a larger enterprise, an SME will have different priorities.

However, I think the key driver for Fortinet’s share price will be top line growth and its effect on their key margin metrics. If we look at the last three years we see a nice trend developing in Fortinet's numbers. I've included Check Point's metrics to 2009 by way of comparison.

 
Fortinet
2008
2009
Rolling to Q3 2010
CheckPoint
2009
Revenue
211791
252115
301808
791,147
Gross Mgn
71.10%
74.93%
72.87%
85.58%
SG&AMgn
49.27%
45.55%
43.02%
30.00%
R & D Mgn
17.49%
16.74%
15.90%
9.71%
Op Mgin
2.33%
10.05%
13.95%
44.89%
FCF Mgn
16.47%
22.76%
28.14%
59.82%
    
source: fortinet,check point software, earnings view

          
The last column of Fortinet numbers are the rolling four quarters to the third quarter of 2010. The drop in gross margin is explained by the fact that Q4 is normally a large quarter. Indeed, analysts have revenue forecasts of $86.57m for 2010 Q4 vs. $70.71m last year. Gross Margins for Fortinet have increased every quarter this year.

 I would also caution that Q4 2010 included a tax gain of $32m which somewhat flatters the free cash flow margins in the last two Fortinet columns. However, excluding that quarter-by calculating free cash flow margin for first three quarters of 2010- still shows they are translating 30% of revenue into free cash flow.


Fortinet Margin Expansion
Clearly, these numbers indicate that Fortinet has room to expand margins and cash flow generation as they grow their revenue numbers. I have included Check Point Software as a benchmark for Fortinet.

However, I think it worth noting that Check Point is likely to have lower SG&A margins because they sell a lot of their product range into larger enterprises (fewer customers, bigger ticker values). In spite of this, I think there is plenty of potential for Fortinet to grow and for these catalysts to be realized in the share price.


Fortinet Evaluation

Fortinet trades at a price of $31.35 and a market cap of $2.31bn with $290m in net cash. On a back of envolope assumption of 30% FCFMargin and analyst forecasts of $370m in revenue for 2011 I would say that a forward FCFYield of 4.8% is cheap for a business growing revenues, earnings and cash flow at mid teens plus rate. You won't get this kind of growth by buying a 10 year note! I picked some up.













Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Is Tupperware a Good Stock to Buy on Emerging Market Prospects Alone?






Tupperware is an interesting emerging market growth stock. It offers a curious mix of significant exposure to high growth emerging markets, a secular growth story with its direct distribution model and, a relatively recession resistant business model. On the downside, currency fluctuations play a major role in dictating profitability and their established markets appear to be low growth. I’ll try to outline these points in turn.

Emerging Markets Becoming More Important to Tupperware

Firstly, here is how segmental profits have developed over the years and note how the profit mix is shifting towards Asia/Pacific…



Percentage Share of Segmental Profits



2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Rolling to Q3 2010
Europe
76.68%
52.83%
45.68%
45.56%
43.18%
40.20%
Asia Pacific
13.50%
20.79%
21.40%
23.81%
23.68%
25.54%
TW N Amer
0.33%
4.77%
8.77%
10.20%
11.48%
12.90%
Beauty N A
9.22%
8.01%
27.28%
22.27%
15.73%
14.34%
Beauty Int
0.26%
13.60%
-3.13%
-1.84%
5.94%
7.01%


It's worth noting that 'Europe' includes areas such as South Africa, Russia and Turkey, which have been high growth areas for them.  They are doing well in emerging markets but there appears to be a consolidated decline within established markets.

However, the situation is somewhat affected by executive issues at Beauty North America (BeautiControl) of which, they appear to have stabilized. The latter issue is somewhat embarrassing given that the CEO Rick Goings is a former US head of Avon Products.

Developed Markets Stabilizing and Restructuring in Place

Here are the sales numbers for the divisions on a five year basis...


2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Rolling to Q3 2010
Total Sales
1279
1743
1981
2161.8
2127
2271
Europe
602.5
615.9
688.2
769.6
749.6
788.6
Asia Pacific
204.5
239.7
292.4
336.1
385
440
TW N Am
253.6
255.5
289.8
303.3
292.3
316.3
Beauty N A
146.7
150
461.5
460.7
391.6
400.6
Beauty Int
72
482.6
249.5
292.1
309
325.9


The issues with Beauty North America are well expressed here, but they seem to have stablized to low growth. However as noted above, this division only contributes 14% of profits. Furthermore, if we look at segmental profits...


2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Rolling to Q3 2010
Europe
116.4
96.3
111
123.8
143.3
153.6
Asia Pacific
20.5
37.9
52
64.7
78.6
97.6
TW Nor A
0.5
8.7
21.3
27.7
38.1
49.3
Beauty N A
14
14.6
66.3
60.5
52.2
54.8
Beauty Int
0.4
24.8
-7.6
-5
19.7
26.8


...we see that the situation has been turned around. Nevertheless, the trend of slower growth in North America (Tupperware and Beauty) appears to be established.

A Recession Resistant Business Model?

 However, as noted in the initial paragraph, although this is slower growth it is relatively recession resistant. This is because when a recession bites, Tupperware will find it easier to recruit direct sales people to go out and sell their products on a part time basis. We can see that here...

<><><><><><><><><><><><>
Active Sales Force by Segment
200720082009       Q3 2010
Europe97192100,660106,64591,358
Asia Pacific4136147,37062,41972,726
TW Nor A6720475,92786,83288,548
Beauty N A341,875338,315326,251341,140
Beauty Int239,802240,758232,137234,029


The sales force in Europe and North America expanded dramatically during the recession. However, within Asia Pacific, an even more dramatic expansion took place.

Asia Pacific has another, more secular, profit driver. Not only is consumer discretionary picking up there, but Tupperware's direct distribution model works well in allowing women to generate part time income. A similar growth story is occurring with Avon Products, Revlon and Estee Lauder who are all, doing well within emerging markets.


Conclusions: Is Tupperware a Good Buy?

I confess to having a few concerns here. Tupperware North America appears to be set for low growth and I am also very concerned about a slowdown in developed Europe. I think increasing Sovereign Debt fears will reduce growth prospects for mainstream Europe in 2011. However, I note that this should result in an increased sales force, albeit with lower sales per person.

The emerging market growth story is compelling and, I believe, offers a cyclical (consumerisation) and secular (expansion of business model) growth story. Moreover, I expect emerging market profit contribution to be greater than that of North America by end 2011. The company already states that 60% of their sales are to emerging markets. In addition, this is including weak performance in Russia thanks to an accounting error and some one-off operational issues. Hopefully, these will be resolved.

Ultimately, I like prospects here and the way this stock will perform within a portfolio. It offers interesting and diversified profit drivers. Admittedly, it will not like strong US Dollar, but then again I am not a US resident.

 Analysts have it on an EPS of $3.62 and $4.17 for 2010 and 2011 respectively. At a share price of $47.68 this gives a PE ratio for Tupperware of 13.2x and 11.4x respectively. Furthermore, I have it on a current free cash flow yield of 5.7% which is good, considering they look set to grow earnings in the mid teens. I'll pick some up.


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